When it comes to watching NFL games in Utah on television, the most popular teams are the Broncos, Cowboys or 49ers.
But a new study by Brigham Young University and the Fox affiliate in Salt Lake City shows that choosing to broadcast a local favorite isn’t always the smartest ratings decision.
“When you look at the difference between the average team effect, like say the Miami Dolphins, and the next top tier after the Denver Broncos, the results are small, practically insignificant,” said BYU statistics professor Scott Grimshaw. “We went in thinking that we would find the next big team, but really we found no difference.”
Grimshaw teamed up with Scott J. Burwell of Fox 13 in Salt Lake City on a report that appears in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Their model predicts within a local market which matchups would generate the largest TV audience.
Based on actual ratings data, the analysis shows that fans don’t just watch their favorite team – they also hop on the bandwagon of whoever is winning and lighting up the scoreboard. And when two high-scoring, winning teams play, it’s ratings gold.
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