What’s the probability that a few collegiate departments around the state could get together and predict the winners of the mid-term election?
Not too likely in many states, but it happens on a regular basis in Utah.
BYU’s Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, in conjunction with political science departments in five other colleges and universities in Utah, predicted that Mia Love would win the contested seat in congress by a margin of 50.6 (Love) to 47.0 (Owens). The actual percentage ended up being 50.04 to 46.75.
Every two years, students all over Utah participate in the exit poll project. Statistics and political science student volunteers take voter surveys at the polls, and then statistics students analyze the data and project the winners in the elections. Students selected from the BYU statistics and political science classes then appear on KBYU to discuss the exit poll and other political topics, and announce their results once the polls close. In all of their years running the exit poll program, they are nearly always correct in their predictions.
Dan Williams, the adjunct faculty member who guides the statistics students through the exit poll project, said that though accurate results are always good to see, the process itself is the truly valuable part for the students.
“The process we are participating in is real,” Williams said. “It was the exit poll that got me the experience to help me excel at my first job. It was the experience received here [at BYU] that allowed me that extra leg up on the competition. Doing this work, for the students, helps solidify years of study.”
His team of ten statistics students started preparing for Election Day in May. The students were split into groups that determined how the sample of voters was to be selected, created computer programs to pull the data together, analyzed the data the day of the election, and manned crisis teams to handle any unforeseen circumstances, among many other tasks.
“I looked at the historical data [from past exit polls] to predict the turnout of voters in polling locations,” Maddison Phan, a senior studying statistical science, said. “We used that data to sample and properly weight the surveys we received from the different locations.”
Dr. Howard Christensen, an emeritus statistical science faculty member, and Dr. David Magleby, a faculty member in the political science department, have been part of the exit poll program since its beginning in 1982 Christensen is pleased with the growth and accomplishments of the program. The statistical component of the operation started with about five statistical science students and a sample size of approximately 1,100 voters. Now it has grown to 1,200 students across the state and a sample size of about 13,000 voters this year.
“I was involved on Tuesday (November 4), and I saw the various things going on in the crisis center,” Christensen said. “I saw such a core of very capable students. They were handling the problems and occasionally they would come and ask for guidance or ask for ideas, but most of the time, they had solutions all ready to go. We were seeing really capable students doing a really great job.”
This experience shows the students what they are capable of, and that valuable insight is the real purpose behind the project, Christensen continued.
“The important thing [in the exit polls project] is the large number of students who gain an invaluable, real-world experience that often becomes a highlight of their college and university education,” Christensen said.